The drama unfolded fast. The New York Islanders, slotted 10th in pre-lottery order, captured the first draw and vaulted to the No. 1 pick. Moments later the newly rebranded Utah Hockey Club—sitting 14th—won the second draw. Under the 2021 rules a club can move up only 10 positions, so Utah’s reward capped out at No. 4 rather than No. 2.
Because only the top two selections are determined by lottery draws, the fallout locked San Jose (worst regular-season record) into No. 2 and bumped Chicago to No. 3. With two teams leap-frogging forward, every club originally between 6 and 9 dropped exactly two places—Seattle fell from its initial No. 6 odds slot to No. 8.
If you’re counting at home, Kraken fans had just a 9.1 percent chance of sliding all the way to eighth going into the night, according to Tankathon-based odds. The unluckiest scenario on the board showed up in real time.
What pick no. 8 means for the Kraken
Truth serum: dropping two rungs stings. Seattle finished a frustrating season precisely because it lacked game-breaking talent up front, and picks inside the top six historically produce a higher rate of first-line forwards and top-pair defenders.
Even so, this draft class offers a clearer “Big Four” and then a remarkably fluid next tier. After consensus headliners Matthew Schaefer (two-way OHL blueliner), Michael Misa (dynamic Saginaw center), James Hagens (Boston College play-driver) and power winger Porter Martone are off the board, scouts vary wildly on slots 5-15.
Sitting eighth, new general manager Jason Botterill should still have a crack at:
- Rdim Mrtka – A 6-foot-2 Czech center who blends power-forward tenacity with a deceptive shot and projects as a middle-six driver with top-line upside.
- Roger McQueen – WHL playmaker whose combination of 200-foot IQ and late growth-spurt strength turned heads on Team Canada’s U-18 squad.
- Logan Hensler – Right-shot Wisconsin defender praised for elite edge work and transition passing; could become Vince Dunn’s long-term partner or turnkey second-pair quarterback.
Seattle’s own prospect pipeline also influences the choice. With Matty Beniers and Shane Wright already penciled down the middle, Botterill could hunt for a skilled winger who finishes chances—or double down on mobile defense if he sees a long-term Dunn replacement.
Why the rules mattered more than the odds
Monday’s outcome showcased just how much the 2021 tweaks have changed lottery math:
- Only two drawings now decide picks, so chaos is contained but still possible if both winners come from the lower odds group.
- Teams can move up a maximum of 10 spots. Utah’s jump from 14th to fourth is the textbook example; without that limiter the club would have stolen No. 2 and pushed everyone else back an extra rung.
- No one can drop more than two slots. Seattle hit the floor of its potential fall—painful, yet not season-crushing.
For the Kraken this was the rare worst-case draw, but it also highlights how small their original margin for error was: after a 76-point campaign they owned just a 15.4 percent chance to move up at all and a coin-flip’s chance to move backward.
Silver linings for Seattle fans
- Recent history loves pick eight. Quinn Hughes (2018), Cale Makar (2017) and Zach Werenski (2015) were all selected eighth and quickly became cornerstone defenders.
- Cap flexibility remains king. Botterill still controls his full arsenal of draft capital plus projected summer cap space. If the board falls unfavorably, packaging No. 8 with another asset to trade up—or even down for multiple picks—is on the table.
- Kraken scouting has earned trust. Seattle’s amateur staff unearthed late-round gems like Ryker Evans and Tye Kartye. Give them two extra players to evaluate at the top of the class and odds are they’ll find value.
The road to Los Angeles (and beyond)
The 2025 NHL Draft convenes June 27-28 at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles. Seattle’s front office will now run every imaginable eight-player mock to prepare for whatever chaos the seven clubs ahead unleash. Until then, Kraken fans can keep an eye on the WHL playoffs and the IIHF Worlds for final prospect flashes.
Dropping to eighth hurt in the moment, but recent drafts prove impact players still linger there. One lucky bounce didn’t go Seattle’s way on lottery night; the next franchise-altering bounce can arrive on draft day—with the right pick.