When the Vegas Golden Knights reached the Stanley Cup Final in their inaugural 2017‑18 season, they shattered every preconceived notion of how an expansion franchise “should” perform—setting a sky‑high bar that inevitably loomed over the Seattle Kraken when they entered the league in 2021. Yet for every Vegas miracle, there’s an Atlanta Thrashers cautionary tale: a franchise that needed 18 long seasons (and a relocation to Winnipeg) just to notch its first playoff win. Four years into their journey, the Kraken sit firmly between those two extremes, tracking more closely with steady climbers like Minnesota and Nashville. If Seattle continues to nurture its young core and resist rushing the process, it could follow the Wild and Predators into perennial‑contender territory—proving that patience, not panic, is the true expansion blueprint.
The Kraken’s rollercoaster journey
Year 1 (2021–22): Growing pains
Record: 27-49-6 (.366)
A tough introduction. Seattle’s expansion draft leaned toward cap flexibility over marquee names, resulting in a makeshift roster. Though wins were scarce, they added vital draft capital.
Year 2 (2022–23): Playoff lightning
Record: 46-28-8 (.610), 1st Round Win
A rousing surprise. With Matty Beniers capturing the Calder Trophy, the Kraken upset the reigning champion Avalanche. For a moment, it felt like “Vegas magic,” but the fairytale ended in the second round.
Year 3 (2023–24): Regression to the mean
Record: 34-35-13 (.494)
The league adapted. Opposing teams neutralized the Kraken’s balanced offense, Seattle’s save percentage slid from .900 to .885, and the departure of several key depth pieces from the playoff run left noticeable gaps.
Year 4 (2024–25): Transition under Bylsma
Record: 35-41-6 (.469)
A modest downturn. New head coach Dan Bylsma is integrating younger players into a different system. Growing pains are inevitable, but the long-term development could pay off.
The long road to contention
Vegas’s instant success was historic—but impossible to replicable. More commonly, expansion teams endure a methodical climb. Below are the stats for the first four years of each expansion team since 1998.
- Seattle Kraken - 142 Total Wins, 1 playoff appearance
- Vegas Golden Knights - 173 Total wins, 4 playoff appearances
- Columbus Blue Jackets - 104 Total wins, 0 playoff appearances
- Minnesota Wild - 123 Total wins, 1 playoff appearance
- Atlanta Thrashers - 87 Total wins, 0 playoff appearances
- Nashville Predators - 118 Total wins, 0 playoff appearances
From cinderella to consistency
After their stunning trip to the 2003 Western Conference Final, the Wild regressed the following year. But once the franchise steadied itself—leaning on homegrown pillars like Mikko Koivu and Jason Zucker—it finally hit its stride, qualifying for the postseason 10 times in the subsequent 11 seasons.
Predators’ patient hunt
The Predators missed the playoffs for five consecutive years from inception but stayed patient while developing Pekka Rinne, Roman Josi, and Filip Forsberg. That foundation led to a 2017 Stanley Cup Final appearance.
While this season has felt like a let‑down, the raw numbers still place Seattle in rarefied expansion company. Since the late 1990s, only the Golden Knights have accumulated more victories in their first four years than the Kraken. Seattle is the third modern expansion team to notch a playoff‑series win within its first four seasons, joining Vegas and Minnesota. Even amid Year 4 turbulence, the Kraken remain comfortably ahead of the traditional expansion curve.
Seattle’s youth provides reasons for optimism
The biggest thrill at Climate Pledge Arena this year hasn’t come from the numbers on the scoreboard but from watching an emerging nucleus take its first steps together. Scan the bench on any given night and you’ll find a half‑dozen players who won’t blow out 25 candles for a while—fresh‑faced youngsters already logging important NHL minutes. They’ve offered enticing snapshots of what a fully formed Kraken squad could become: crisp cross‑ice feeds, daring zone entries, and an infectious burst of energy that drags the veterans into battle. Mistakes are part of the deal, sure, yet with every end‑to‑end rush, every committed backcheck, and every scrambling save on a loose puck, another brick is laid in Seattle’s long‑term foundation.
- Matty Beniers (22): Shaking off last year’s sophomore slump, the 2023 Calder winner rediscovered his scoring touch, finishing with 20 goals—fourth‑most on the club—even after enduring a 19‑game goal drought. That bounce‑back, paired with his mature two‑way game, cements his status as Seattle’s captain‑in‑waiting.
- Shane Wright (21): After cracking the roster full‑time, the 2022 fourth‑overall pick put up 44 points in 79 games, paced the entire team with seven power‑play goals, and did it on a modest 14:00 average time on ice—numbers that hint at an even bigger breakout once his role expands.
- Kaapo Kakko (24): The mid‑season acquisition proved to be more than a reclamation project, posting a career‑best 44 points and watching his production spike the moment he slipped on a Kraken sweater. His instant chemistry with Matty Beniers signals that Seattle has a ready‑made top‑line duo to build around.
- Prospect Pipeline: Seattle’s cupboard is brimming with high‑ceiling talent.
Jani Nyman (20) already dipped a toe into NHL waters this year—slotting beside fellow Finn Kaapo Kakko for 12 games and tallying 3 goals and 3 assists.
Berkly Catton (19) just finished third in WHL scoring with 109 points, an eye‑popping total for the most recent first round pick by the Kraken.
Carson Rehkopf (20) piled up 86 points in 57 OHL contests, showcasing a pro‑ready release and north‑south motor.
Staying the course is Seattle’s edge
Vegas rewrote the record books, but holding the Kraken to Golden‑Knight standards ignores a simple truth: the 2017 expansion rules that gifted Vegas an instant contender were tightened before Seattle’s draft. The more fitting yardstick is the class of modern expansion cousins—Minnesota and Nashville—whose slow‑burn builds grew into years of playoff relevance. Stack the Kraken beside them and you’ll find Seattle slightly ahead of schedule, boasting more wins, an earlier series victory, and a deeper prospect reservoir at the four‑year mark.
That reservoir matters. A top‑ten farm system featuring Berkly Catton, Jani Nyman, and Carson Rehkopf is ready to reinforce a homegrown NHL core led by Matty Beniers, Shane Wright, and Kaapo Kakko. Add smart, long‑term commitments—Joey Daccord’s value contract, Beniers’ inevitable extension—and Seattle’s foundation looks sturdier than most fourth‑year franchises. The next step is avoiding the temptation to sprint: resist cap‑crushing shortcuts, clear aging first‑wave deals (think Philipp Grubauer, Jamie Oleksiak), and let the kids drive the timeline.
Stay patient, stay flexible, and the payoff could mirror—or even exceed—the arcs that turned Minnesota and Nashville into perennial threats. The horizon is bright; the only real danger is trying to reach it too fast.