The Kraken closed out their fourth season with a 35‑41‑6 record, sitting near the league’s very bottom tier. For a while it looked like they might finish with the fourth‑best lottery odds, but Boston and Philadelphia cooled off even more down the stretch, sliding just below Seattle in the standings. That reshuffle leaves the Kraken holding the sixth‑best chance at ping‑pong‑ball glory—7.5 percent for the No. 1 pick and 7.7 percent for No. 2. The percentages are slim, but a quick grasp of the lottery’s quirks makes lottery night must‑watch TV for any Seattle fan.
How the lottery machine actually works
- Fourteen balls, 1,001 combos. A league‑run machine draws four balls from a set of fourteen, creating 1,001 possible number combinations.
- Odds tied to point totals. Each non‑playoff club receives a share of those combinations based on its finish. Lower in the standings means more chances.
- Only the first two picks are decided by chance. After two draws, the remaining draft order reverts to regular‑season ranking.
Extra safeguards limit big leaps and repeat winners:
- Any club can move up a maximum of ten spots, so the last‑place team is locked into at least pick No. 3.
- A team cannot win the lottery more than twice in any five‑year window that began with the 2022 event.
Because Seattle sits sixth, only the five clubs ahead of them (and whichever sleeper might jump ten positions) can block the Kraken from sliding no farther than eighth. In plain terms, the floor is pick eight, the ceiling is the first selection, and pick six is the statistical sweet spot. Since the current rules debuted in 2021, no team lower than fifth has captured first overall, underscoring why Kraken brass remain realistic about holding firm at six.
Seattle’s small but memorable lottery track record
The Kraken entered their inaugural lottery in 2021 and immediately struck gold, climbing one slot to choose Matty Beniers at second overall. Beniers collected the franchise’s first Calder Trophy and is already cemented as a foundational center.
One year later, the ping‑pong gods nudged Seattle the other way, nudging them from third to fourth in 2022. Ron Francis happily grabbed Shane Wright, whose flashes this season hint at a long‑term top‑six ceiling.
Seattle skipped the lottery in 2023 after making the playoffs, but they were back in the mix last spring with roughly a 6 percent shot and ultimately stayed right where they started at No. 8 overall. The Kraken’s three completed lotteries boil down to: one jump, one drop, one stand‑pat—all of which have already produced foundational talent.
Draft day payoffs beyond pick position
Even if the Kraken remain at No. 6, the front office has shown it can extract value regardless of exact slot. Second‑round find Jani Nyman debuted in the NHL late this spring and could contend for rookie honors next year. First‑rounders Eduard Sale (2023) and Berkly Catton (2024) both produced eye‑opening seasons in the AHL and WHL, respectively. Combine that with scouting director Robert Kron’s growing reputation for unearthing skill, and Seattle fans can trust that any first‑round selection will plug straight into the prospect pipeline.
The takeaway is simple: lottery night is not only about chasing the right to draft a potential franchise superstar. It is also a pulse check on where Seattle will add its next high‑end asset in a farm system already richer than most at this stage of an expansion life cycle.
What to expect when the balls drop
- Best‑case dream: Seattle overcomes 92.5 percent odds and picks first, landing the consensus top talent.
- Most‑likely reality: Pick No. 6, where recent history suggests impact players are still plentiful.
- Worst‑case slide: A jump by a team currently slotted 12th–16th could nudge the Kraken down to No. 8.
However the math sorts itself out, lottery night will not define the rebuild on its own. Four drafts have already yielded a Calder winner, a future top‑six center, and a prospect pool that analysts rank in the league’s upper half. The Kraken may be underdogs against the ping‑pong balls, but their scouts have proven they do not need a lucky bounce to keep Seattle’s long‑term trajectory pointing up.